That is the results of a cocktail identified to economists: a “sluggish” domestic demand and a “strongly destructive” contribution from overseas commerce. End result, the gross home product (GDP) of France remained stable within the first quarter, INSEE introduced Thursday in a primary estimate.
This consequence appears to point out that the economy was disappointing earlier than the triggering of the war in the Middle East on February 28 and goes in opposition to the forecasts of the foremost institutes: the Banque de France nonetheless thought a fortnight in the past that progress might have reached “as much as 0.3%” within the first quarter whereas on the finish of March, INSEE had lowered its preliminary forecast from 0.3% to 0.2%.
Lastly, GDP is “marking time”, notes the Nationwide Institute of Statistics, after rising by 0.2% within the fourth quarter of 2025.
Family consumption “declines barely”
Closing home demand (excluding shares) “is sluggish”, notes INSEE, with family consumption “declining barely” (-0.1% after +0.4% within the fourth quarter) and funding falling (-0.4% after +0.3%). In whole, the contribution of home demand (excluding shares) to GDP progress is zero this quarter, after having contributed 0.4 factors within the fourth quarter of 2025.
The contribution of overseas commerce for its half is “strongly destructive” (-0.7 level after + 0.6 level within the fourth quarter): exports fall again “frantically” (-3.8% after + 0.8%), and imports fall once more (-1.7% after -0.8%).
Finally, it’s the stock variations that forestall GDP from lowering within the first quarter. They contribute 0.8 factors to its evolution, after -0.7 within the fourth quarter, particularly due to aeronautical merchandise, after a robust destocking within the two earlier quarters.
An annual forecast that appears onerous to maintain
The federal government’s newest progress forecast for 2026 is 0.9%. He had revised it downwards by 0.1 level round two weeks in the past to consider the inflationary results of the struggle within the Center East.
With an “achievement” (i.e. what annual progress can be if it remained steady after this primary quarter) of 0.5% on the finish of March, this annual forecast appears troublesome to maintain, as a result of it could require progress of round 0.3% in every of the next quarters to be achieved, in response to an AFP calculation, whereas the consequences of the struggle haven’t but been felt.
