Opendoor’s Q1 numbers have been combined, however CEO Kaz Nejatian isn’t apologizing. Right here’s what the corporate’s inside metrics say about whether or not the turnaround is actual.
Opendoor Technologies on Thursday reported Q1 income of $720 million, topping the $664.5 million analyst consensus however down 38 % yr over yr. EPS got here in at a lack of $0.18, worse than the anticipated $0.10 loss. Shares edged up about 1 % in after-hours buying and selling.
CEO Kaz Nejatianwho took the helm final September, mentioned the corporate has structurally shifted from making directional bets on dwelling costs to a velocity-based mannequin. New merchandise embody Opendoor Mortgagenow dwell in Colorado, and Cash Pluswhich represents greater than a 3rd of acquisition contracts.
‘Market makers win by being proper about time’
On the livestreamed earnings callNejatian framed Q1 as proof that the structural overhaul he’s been executing is working, even when the headline numbers don’t but replicate it.
The core of his argument: Opendoor was beforehand operating like a prop buying and selling desk, making directional bets on dwelling worth appreciation months out. When these bets went improper, spreads widened, acquisition high quality deteriorated and the corporate spiraled. The brand new mannequin, he mentioned, is constructed round velocity as a substitute of prediction.
“Market makers don’t win by being proper about route,” Nejatian mentioned on the decision. “They win by being proper about time.”
The shift, he mentioned, exhibits up most clearly in cohort knowledge.
Opendoor now tracks margin stability throughout every acquisition cohort. Beneath the previous mannequin, margins would bleed considerably as the corporate labored by means of stock. Nejatian mentioned the 4 most up-to-date cohorts — October by means of January — have proven primarily flat margin curves, a sample he referred to as “a step perform change.”
The CFO’s 3-number rebuttal
CFO Christie Exner pointed to a few metrics she mentioned inform the true story.
Resale contribution margin improved each month since September, closing Q1 at 4.4 %, up 3.4 proportion factors quarter-over-quarter. Houses sitting available on the market for greater than 120 days fell from 51 % to 10 % over the previous three quarters. And signed acquisition contracts in Q1 topped 5,000, the corporate’s strongest quarter since Q2 2022.
“The final time acquisition contracts exceeded 5,000 in 1 / 4, our mounted OpEx was double the place it’s proper now,” Exner mentioned. “That’s the AI investments and operator empowerment that we discuss each single quarter.”
Nejatian names his failure situations
Exner guided Q2 income to develop roughly 25 % quarter-over-quarter and mentioned the corporate expects to hit adjusted EBITDA break-even in Q2, plus or minus a number of million.
Extra considerably, administration mentioned Opendoor is already adjusted EBITDA worthwhile on a 12-month go-forward foundation as of April 1, and reiterated its objective of reaching adjusted internet revenue profitability, additionally measured on a 12-month go-forward foundation, by year-end.
Nejatian was blunt about what would sign the plan isn’t working: cohort curves reverting to the previous bleed sample, contract quantity plateauing beneath the low finish of the corporate’s steering vary and aged stock creeping again up. “If all three of these issues occur,” he mentioned, “then we’re not doing what we mentioned we might do.”
Greater than an iBuyer now
A lot of the decision centered on how AI is threading through Opendoor’s operations.
Executives described an AI audit software that reconciles inspection scopes with precise restore selections to enhance operator compliance and price self-discipline; subject managers utilizing AI-assisted scoping to trim pre-listing renovation spend by 10 to twenty % in pilot markets; and a title consumption course of that went from as much as 5 hours to fifteen minutes.
The corporate additionally highlighted its Money Plus product, which now represents greater than a 3rd of acquisition contracts, up from zero a yr in the past.
Additionally they talked about the launch of Opendoor Mortgage in Colorado, the place Nejatian mentioned early connect charges exceeded expectations and charges are operating roughly 87 foundation factors beneath market averages.
On tokenization of real estate — requested about in a two-word query from the viewers — Nejatian went lengthy, calling on-chain settlement “the inevitable class finish” for title and mortgage. He stopped wanting asserting any merchandise however mentioned the corporate’s latest acquisition of Doma’s escrow division was “clearly the step in the precise route.”
Nejatian isn’t ready for the macro to enhance
With mortgage rates still elevatedanalysts pressed on whether or not the profitability targets have been life like. Nevertheless it was in his closing remarks that Nejatian was most direct: the robust market isn’t a headwind to be defined away — it’s the purpose.
Riffing on Warren Buffett’s well-known line about discovering out who’s swimming with out shorts when the tide goes out, Nejatian mentioned the housing downturn was precisely what he signed up for. “I didn’t take this job as a result of I hoped macro would flip, and it will bail us out,” he mentioned. “I selected exhausting mode.”
Whether or not Opendoor’s turnaround holds as acquisition volumes scale would be the central query heading into the again half of 2026.
