The Virginia Supreme Court docket on Friday struck down a voter-approved measure permitting Democratic state lawmakers to gerrymander the state’s Home map earlier than the midterms.
The 4-to-3 ruling was an enormous blow to Democrats’ efforts to maintain up with Republicans in a nationwide redistricting battle. It got here simply 17 days after Virginia voters passed the referendumwhich may have paved the best way for Democrats to flip as much as 4 Republican-held seats within the state in November.
Listed here are 4 takeaways on the choice:
Democrats face yet one more huge setback within the gerrymandering battle.
After the referendum handed by about three percentage points final month, it appeared that Democrats had fought Republicans to a tough attract a nationwide mid-decade gerrymandering battle that Republican state lawmakers in Texas began final 12 months at President Trump’s urging. Annoyed Republicans had been wondering if it was all worth it.
Not so anymore.
A U.S. Supreme Court docket decision in late April that weakened the landmark Voting Rights Act has emboldened Republicans in Tennessee, Alabama and Louisiana to attempt to redraw congressional districts to their benefit. Republicans in South Carolina have additionally began exploring the potential of new maps forward of the midterms.
And after the choice out of Virginia on Friday, certainly one of Democrats’ largest successes within the gerrymandering chess match has been wiped away. The Democratic-drawn map would have left the state with just one protected Republican seat. The House delegation at the moment includes six Democrats and 5 Republicans.
“Large win for the Republican Social gathering, and America, in Virginia,” Mr. Trump wrote on social media.
Republicans have reclaimed a gerrymandering benefit, however which may not save them within the midterms.
Nationally, the contours of the map are getting harder for Democrats, however the midterm image for Republicans stays removed from rosy.
When the mud settles on the redistricting struggle forward of the midterms, Democrats may find yourself shedding no less than half a dozen protected seats, and presumably extra, relying on components together with the passage of recent maps within the Southern states favoring Republicans.
However that tells solely a part of the story within the battle for management of the Home.
Republicans are battling headwinds posed by Mr. Trump’s poor approval scores, the unpopular battle in Iran and rising vitality costs.
Many swing-district Republicans have been fretting about how the battle will have an effect on their probabilities in November. The battle has alienated some main conservative voices, and Republican candidates have been exasperated by Mr. Trump’s fight with Pope Leo XIV over the battle.
Virginia’s high court docket mentioned the referendum was set too late.
In its resolution, the Virginia Supreme Court docket mentioned the issue with the referendum was that state lawmakers first voted to start the method after early voting began in final fall’s legislative contests.
The method wanted to be set in movement earlier than the election started, in keeping with state regulation. The authorized arguments turned closely on the that means of an election: Did the election begin on Election Day, or at first of early voting?
The court docket mentioned it began with early voting.
It famous that by the point state lawmakers voted on the referendum, greater than 1.3 million ballots had been forged within the November 2025 election.
The court docket’s transfer was uncommon as a result of it got here after voters had already weighed in immediately on the referendum. However the court docket’s majority mentioned in its opinion that it was merely following the request of the Democratic-controlled state authorities by ready to resolve the difficulty after the referendum.
“It’s honest to ask whether or not we may have or ought to have reviewed the constitutionality of the proposed modification previous to it being introduced to the voters,” the court docket’s majority opinion mentioned, but it surely famous that “All through this litigation, the Commonwealth has insisted that we can’t lawfully determine this case previous to the referendum.”
In Virginia, there was some precedent for the court docket’s transfer. In 1958, the Virginia Supreme Court docket reversed a referendum concerning bonds.
The authorized battle won’t be over.
Late Friday afternoon, attorneys for the state of Virginia mentioned in a submitting to the Virginia Supreme Court docket that they meant to file an emergency petition to the U.S. Supreme Court docket, which is deep into its time period.
The U.S. Supreme Court docket has a conservative supermajority, however has proven tolerance in recent years for partisan maneuvering in gerrymandering. It has already upheld a Republican-drawn congressional map in Texas and a Democratic-drawn map in California.
However authorized specialists mentioned Democrats may face a problem in persuading the court docket that it ought to think about the matter: The Virginia case turned on state regulation, moderately than federal regulation.
Richard Hasen, an election regulation knowledgeable on the College of California, Los Angeles, mentioned attorneys for the Virginia authorities may argue that the state court docket was interfering with the ability of the state legislature, however he referred to as the argument a “lengthy shot.”
The workplace of Jay Jones, the Virginia legal professional basic and a Democrat, mentioned it was contemplating its authorized avenues for a problem.
Maureen Edobor, an election regulation knowledgeable at Washington and Lee College Faculty of Regulation, emphasised that the U.S. Supreme Court docket had repeatedly proven openness to permitting last-minute redrawing, and in contrast the Virginia effort to the one in California. However, she added, given the court docket’s conservative tilt, “I don’t assume it appears to be like good for the Democrats.”
Nick Corasaniti contributed reporting.
