July NY world sugar #11 (SBN26) on Thursday closed up +0.03 (+0.21%), and Aug London ICE white sugar #5 (SWQ26) closed up +4.40 (+0.99%).
Sugar costs recovered from early losses on Thursday and settled increased as greenback weak spot spurred some brief overlaying in sugar futures.
Extra Information from Barchart
Sugar costs had been initially underneath stress on Thursday amid a -3% decline in crude oil (CLN26). The weak spot in crude oil undercuts ethanol costs and will immediate the world’s sugar mills to divert extra cane crushing to sugar manufacturing relatively than ethanol, thus boosting sugar provides.
Additionally, the outlook for ample world sugar provides is bearish for costs. Final Wednesday, Unica reported that 2026/27 Brazil Middle-South sugar manufacturing in April rose +55.3% y/y to 2.475 MMT, pushed by increased yields, with sucrose per ton of cane at 112.58 kilograms, up +5.4% from the identical time final 12 months.
Power in Thailand’s sugar exports, the world’s second-largest, can also be bearish for costs. Thailand’s 2026 sugar exports Jan-Apr rose +29% y/y to 1.6 MMT.
Sugar costs have help amid considerations that dry climate from an El Niño occasion might disrupt world sugar manufacturing. The emergence of an El Niño is prone to curb rainfall in Brazil, India, and Thailand, the world’s three largest sugar-producing areas. India’s climate workplace not too long ago lowered its cumulative rainfall estimate for the June-September monsoon season final Friday to 90% of the long-term common, down from a forecast of 92% issued in April. The US Nationwide Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates an 82% likelihood that El Niño situations will emerge between Could and July and persist by means of the tip of the 12 months, with a 67% probability of a “Tremendous El Niño.”
On April 28, Conab, in its preliminary report for the brand new sugar season, forecast that 2026/27 Brazilian sugar output will decline by -0.5% to 43.952 MMT, whereas ethanol output will climb by +7.2% y/y to 29.259 million liters. On April 21, the USDA forecast Brazil’s 2026/27 sugar manufacturing at 42.5 MMT, down -3% y/y, citing millers crushing extra cane for ethanol than for sugar.
Sugar costs have discovered some help amid considerations about provide disruptions stemming from the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz. In line with Covrig Analytics, the closure of the strait has curbed roughly 6% of the world’s sugar commerce, constraining refined sugar output.
