July NY world sugar #11 (SBN26) on Thursday closed up +0.03 (+0.21%), and Aug London ICE white sugar #5 (SWQ26) closed up +4.40 (+0.99%).
Sugar costs recovered from early losses on Thursday and settled increased as greenback weak spot spurred some brief overlaying in sugar futures.
Extra Information from Barchart
Sugar costs had been initially underneath stress on Thursday amid a -3% decline in crude oil (CLN26). The weak spot in crude oil undercuts ethanol costs and will immediate the world’s sugar mills to divert extra cane crushing to sugar manufacturing relatively than ethanol, thus boosting sugar provides.
Additionally, the outlook for ample world sugar provides is bearish for costs. Final Wednesday, Unica reported that 2026/27 Brazil Middle-South sugar manufacturing in April rose +55.3% y/y to 2.475 MMT, pushed by increased yields, with sucrose per ton of cane at 112.58 kilograms, up +5.4% from the identical time final 12 months.
Power in Thailand’s sugar exports, the world’s second-largest, can also be bearish for costs. Thailand’s 2026 sugar exports Jan-Apr rose +29% y/y to 1.6 MMT.
Sugar costs have help amid considerations that dry climate from an El Niño occasion might disrupt world sugar manufacturing. The emergence of an El Niño is prone to curb rainfall in Brazil, India, and Thailand, the world’s three largest sugar-producing areas. India’s climate workplace not too long ago lowered its cumulative rainfall estimate for the June-September monsoon season final Friday to 90% of the long-term common, down from a forecast of 92% issued in April. The US Nationwide Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates an 82% likelihood that El Niño situations will emerge between Could and July and persist by means of the tip of the 12 months, with a 67% probability of a “Tremendous El Niño.”
On April 28, Conab, in its preliminary report for the brand new sugar season, forecast that 2026/27 Brazilian sugar output will decline by -0.5% to 43.952 MMT, whereas ethanol output will climb by +7.2% y/y to 29.259 million liters. On April 21, the USDA forecast Brazil’s 2026/27 sugar manufacturing at 42.5 MMT, down -3% y/y, citing millers crushing extra cane for ethanol than for sugar.
Sugar costs have discovered some help amid considerations about provide disruptions stemming from the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz. In line with Covrig Analytics, the closure of the strait has curbed roughly 6% of the world’s sugar commerce, constraining refined sugar output.
On April 16, India’s Nationwide Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories Ltd. reported that India’s 2025-26 sugar manufacturing from Oct 1-Apr 15 was up +7.7% y/y to 27.48 MMT. On April 7, the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Producers Affiliation (ISMA) revised its 2025/26 sugar manufacturing forecast to 32 MMT, down from an earlier projection of 32.4 MMT. The ISMA additionally initiatives India’s 2025/26 sugar exports of 800,000 MT. India launched a quota system for sugar exports in 2022/23 after late rain diminished manufacturing and restricted home provides. In the meantime, the USDA on April 30 mentioned it expects a 2026/27 sugar surplus in India of two.5 MMT, the primary surplus in two years. India is the world’s second-largest sugar producer.
On Could 18, the Worldwide Sugar Group (ISO) forecasted a document world sugar crop for the 2025/26 season and raised its world surplus estimate. ISO forecasts 2025/26 world sugar manufacturing at a document 182 MMT, up +3.5% y/y, and raised its 2025/26 world sugar surplus estimate to 2.2 MMT from a February forecast of 1.22 MMT, rebounding from a -3.46 MMT deficit in 2024-25.
For 2026/27, nevertheless, ISO forecasts that world sugar manufacturing will fall by -1.15% y/y to 180 MMT, and that there will likely be a worldwide sugar deficit of 262,000 MT, citing the potential influence of an El Niño climate sample on harvests in India and Thailand. For 2026/27, StoneX on Could 20 forecast a deficit of -550,000 MT, whereas Covrig Analytics forecast a surplus of 800,000 MT, and Czarnikow forecasts a surplus of 1.1 MMT.
The USDA, in its bi-annual report launched on December 16, projected that world 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would climb +4.6% y/y to a document 189.318 MMT and that world 2025/26 human sugar consumption would improve +1.4% y/y to a document 177.921 MMT. The USDA additionally forecast that 2025/26 world sugar ending shares would fall by -2.9% y/y to 41.188 MMT. The USDA’s Overseas Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would rise by 2.3% y/y to a document 44.7 MMT. FAS additionally predicted that India’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would improve by 25% y/y to 35.25 MMT, pushed by favorable monsoon rains and elevated sugar acreage. As well as, FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing will improve by +2% y/y to 10.25 MMT.
On the date of publication, Wealthy Asplund didn’t have (both instantly or not directly) positions in any of the securities talked about on this article. All data and knowledge on this article is solely for informational functions. This text was initially printed on Barchart.com
