US retailers are maintaining a decent grip on stock regardless of a short-term rise in import cargo, with new forecasts suggesting shipments will fall under final 12 months’s ranges by a lot of the second half of 2026.
The newest International Port Tracker report from the Nationwide Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates expects import volumes at main US container ports to extend in June in contrast with a 12 months earlier. The acquire, nevertheless, displays an unusually weak comparability with June 2025, when imports fell sharply after new tariffs disrupted international provide chains.
Business analysts say retailers stay cautious as inflation, softer shopper demand and ongoing geopolitical tensions proceed to cloud the outlook.
Retailers keep away from constructing extra inventory
Many retailers are selecting to not replenish inventories aggressively forward of the normal peak delivery season.
Jonathan Gold, NRF vice chairman for provide chain and customs coverage, stated the rise anticipated in Might and June is “solely due to the sharp fall-off in imports after ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs have been introduced in April 2025.”
“The general development of decrease imports is anticipated to proceed,” he stated, pointing to increased inflation, weaker shopper confidence and uncertainty surrounding US commerce coverage.
Ben Hackett, founding father of Hackett Associates, stated retailers have to this point resisted large-scale restocking regardless of seasonal demand.
“Ahead demand is weakening,” he stated, including that stalled stock rebuilding and geopolitical tensions are creating an more and more unsure enterprise surroundings.
Import rebound anticipated to be transient
US ports dealt with 2.16 million twenty-foot equal items (TEU) in March, the most recent month with remaining information out there. Volumes have been 0.6% increased than a 12 months earlier and rose 13.6% from February after Lunar New Yr manufacturing facility closures in Asia briefly decreased delivery exercise.
Imports are estimated at 2.13 million TEU for April earlier than rising to 2.17 million TEU in Might and a couple of.13 million TEU in June.
The development is anticipated to be short-lived. Import cargo is forecast to fall 7.8% 12 months on 12 months in July, adopted by declines of 5.5% in August and 1.3% in September. General, import volumes for the primary half of 2026 are anticipated to be solely 0.5% increased than the identical interval final 12 months.
Provide chains stay beneath stress
The report highlights how retailers proceed to steadiness stock prices towards unsure shopper demand.
Though provide chain disruption has eased in contrast with current years, companies stay cautious as tariff insurance policies, inflation and international political tensions proceed to have an effect on sourcing choices and buying plans.
