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Credo Expertise Group (CRDO) posted Q3 fiscal 2026 income of $407 million, up 201.5% 12 months over 12 months, pushed by hyperscaler demand for its Energetic Electrical Cables that reach copper attain whereas chopping energy consumption in half. The corporate is buying DustPhotonics for $750 million in money and inventory to construct a vertically built-in stack combining SerDes chips with silicon photonics, positioning optical income to exceed $500 million in fiscal 2027.
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AI information facilities face a copper capability wall as clusters develop to tons of of 1000’s of GPUs, pushing Credo to shift from short-reach copper interconnects to optical options that ship greater bandwidth with decrease power use and fewer warmth technology.
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AI information facilities now devour roughly 27 tons of copper per megawatt for energy supply, cooling, and interconnects. The U.S. added about 11,300 megawatts of information middle capability final 12 months alone. That surge helped create a projected international copper deficit of 320,000 tons in 2026.
Copper costs climbed, lifting shares of miners similar to Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX). But the very pace AI calls for exposes copper’s limits. Electrical resistance caps attain, drives up energy use, and generates warmth that information facilities can not afford at scale. Optical photonics — transmitting information as mild — sidesteps these constraints. It delivers greater bandwidth over longer distances with decrease power and fewer warmth. That shift opens a multi-billion-dollar window for firms that may ship each copper and optical options.
Let’s take a look at the numbers. Quick-reach copper interconnects nonetheless dominate inside AI racks as a result of they’re low cost and dependable at the moment. However as clusters develop to tons of of 1000’s of GPUs, the physics not work. Copper cables lose sign integrity past a number of meters at 800G and 1.6T speeds. Energy consumption per bit rises sharply. Cooling calls for explode.
READ: The analyst who referred to as NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks
In response to S&P World’s January evaluation of copper use in information facilities, substitution choices stay minimal in dense server environments — aluminum cables merely take up an excessive amount of house and conduct warmth poorly. Traders who rode the copper wave by way of copper miners noticed positive factors from the metal-price spike, however the long-term repair lies in mild, no more steel.
Credo Expertise Group (NASDAQ:CRDO) began by fixing the instant drawback. The corporate designs high-speed SerDes chips and Energetic Electrical Cables (AECs) that reach dependable copper attain inside AI clusters whereas chopping energy roughly in half in contrast with passive alternate options. Demand exploded.
In response to Credo’s March earnings launch, third-quarter fiscal 2026 income reached $407 million — up 201.5% 12 months over 12 months and 51.9% sequentially. That development outpaced the broader semiconductor sector and mirrored hyperscalers snapping up AECs for enormous GPU clusters. The inventory mirrored the keenness: it climbed to an intraday excessive of $213.80 in early December. Then actuality set in.
Copper-versus-optics debates, broader market rotation, and profit-taking drove shares down greater than 50% to a low close to $87.81 by late March 2026. Sensible buyers who purchased the dip have since watched the inventory greater than double from these lows because the AI buildout continued.
Right here’s what the numbers inform us about Credo’s place. Trailing 12-month earnings per share stand at roughly $1.92. At current costs round $160, the shares commerce close to 84 occasions trailing earnings — steep, however typical for a corporation posting triple-digit income development. Money and short-term investments ended the quarter at $1.3 billion, giving the corporate ample runway to take a position with out dilution strain.
Final week, Credo introduced it might purchase DustPhotonics, a pacesetter in silicon photonics photonic built-in circuits, for $750 million in money plus about 0.92 million shares and as much as 3.21 million extra shares tied to milestones. The deal is predicted to shut within the second quarter.
DustPhotonics creates a vertically built-in stack: Credo’s SerDes and DSP chips now mix with in-house silicon photonics for optical engines, transceivers, and system-level options. Administration expects the transfer to drive fiscal 2027 income development above 75% 12 months over 12 months and to change into accretive to non-GAAP earnings per share that 12 months. Optical income alone may prime $500 million in fiscal 2027, increasing Credo’s addressable market into longer-reach interconnects the place copper merely can not compete.
Granted, competitors exists. Established optics suppliers already ship pluggable transceivers and are pushing co-packaged optics. Integration all the time carries execution threat, and the inventory’s valuation leaves little room for missteps. That stated, Credo’s confirmed observe document scaling AECs offers it credibility with the identical hyperscale prospects who will purchase its optical merchandise.
The acquisition doesn’t abandon copper — it enhances it. Quick-reach racks keep copper-based whereas optics take over the material that connects them.
Credo Expertise constructed a management place in copper-based AI connectivity and simply spent $750 million-plus to personal the optical layer that solves copper’s limits. The inventory has already proved it will possibly double from sharp sell-offs when development reaccelerates. If the corporate hits its fiscal 2027 targets and captures even a modest slice of the increasing optical TAM, the upward trajectory can proceed.
Savvy buyers ought to count on volatility, watch the DustPhotonics integration, and deal with this as a multi-year AI infrastructure wager fairly than a short-term commerce. The copper crunch is actual. Credo simply purchased the flashlight to see previous it.
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