Bitcoin (BTC) is now flashing its most oversold sign because the COVID-19 crash, elevating the chances of a aid rebound towards $70,000 within the coming weeks.
Key takeaways:
- Bitcoin’s every day RSI has dropped to round 15.5, its most oversold studying because the March 2020 COVID crash.
- Related oversold RSI readings in 2020 and February 2026 preceded sharp aid rebounds of about 50% and 30%, respectively.
BTC refuses to go below $60,000 amid excessive oversold situations
As of Saturday, Bitcoin’s every day relative power index (RSI) stood close to 15.5, properly under the 30 degree that usually marks oversold situations and its lowest studying because the March 2020 market crash.
BTC/USD every day chart. Supply: TradingView
The extraordinarily oversold studying adopted a roughly 30% decline in BTC over the previous month, as geopolitical risks, higher oil prices, fading hopes for a 2026 Federal Reserve rate cut, and panic over Strategy’s latest Bitcoin sale weighed on sentiment.
Oversold readings this excessive typically seem close to seller-exhaustion zones the place short-term patrons start positioning for a aid rebound.
In 2020, Bitcoin’s RSI dropped to round 15.56 earlier than BTC rebounded by about 50%, helped by the Federal Reserve’s emergency shift to near-zero rates of interest and large-scale bond purchases.
BTC/USD every day chart. Supply: TradingView
Nevertheless, Bitcoin has additionally staged sharp rebounds from deeply oversold RSI ranges with out main macro catalysts.
In February 2026, as an illustration, BTC’s every day RSI dropped to round 15.86 whereas value held above the $60,000 help space. The sign preceded an almost 30% restoration towards $82,850.
BTC/USD every day chart. Supply: TradingView
Bitcoin bulls are once more defending $60,000, with bears failing to safe a decisive breakdown regardless of high-volume promoting.
Holding above this degree will increase the chances of an oversold bounce within the coming weeks towards the 20-day exponential shifting common (20-day EMA, the inexperienced line) at round $70,650.
Conversely, a decisive break under $60,000 would weaken the rebound setup and open the door to a deeper drop toward the mid-$50,000sthe place Bitcoin might search for an oversold bounce.
Bitcoin backside is shut: Analyst
Bitcoin short-term holders are realizing their largest losses on report, based on Checkonchain knowledge cited by crypto analyst Scott Melker.
The short-term holder realized revenue/loss ratio has dropped to a brand new all-time low, falling under ranges seen in earlier Bitcoin drawdowns.
Bitcoin short-term holder realized revenue/loss ratio vs. value. Supply: Checkonchain
The metric tracks whether or not latest patrons are promoting at a revenue or loss. A deeply unfavourable studying means newer holders are exiting under their price foundation, signaling panic promoting.
Melker additionally famous that roughly 5.3 million BTC held by long-term holders is now underwater, above the post-FTX peak and the best degree because the March 2020 COVID crash.
Associated: Chance of new Bitcoin lows ‘extremely slim’ as long-term holders’ supply tops 15M BTC
Related stress has appeared close to previous capitulation zones. Bitcoin bottomed close to $15,500 after FTX earlier than rallying roughly 690% to round $126,000 in 2025. After the COVID crash, BTC rose about 1,700% from $3,800 to just about $69,000.
“Sentiment has tracked value nearly completely,” Melker mentioned, including:
“Merchants had been euphoric on the Might peak, then hit peak despair on June 3. That’s often when the underside is shut. Normally.”
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