A optimistic inflection in freight shipments now seems possible after 40 months of year-over-year declines, in response to a month-to-month report from Cass Info Programs. A flip in demand would additional bolster the supply-driven charge restoration that started late final yr.
The multimodal shipments part of the Cass Freight Index dipped simply 1.2% yr over yr in Could, the smallest decline in 18 months. Shipments have been up 3% from April however down 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted foundation.
A rise in home intermodal volumes, whereas “many spot indicators counsel enhancing freight demand,” drove the change.
“These are optimistic indicators {that a} quantity restoration within the second half of the yr stays possible,” the Monday report mentioned. “Whereas it is probably not a consumer-led restoration, inventories are tight, tariffs are falling, and the U.S. greenback is mushy, all of which assist demand progress.”
A 5.2% quantity decline on a two-year-stacked comparability was the smallest since February 2024.
Assuming historic seasonal quantity developments all through the rest of the yr, the index is projected to log a 1.8% y/y enhance within the again half.
Could 2026
and/and
2-year
m/m
m/m (SA)ShipmentsExpendituresTL Linehaul Index
|
-1.2%-5.2percent3.0%-0.3% |
|
7.5percent8.3percent5.3percent4.9% |
|
6.9percent7.5percent0.4percentNM |
Desk: Cass Info Programs (SA – seasonally adjusted)
Cass’ expenditures index, which measures whole freight spend together with gas, jumped 7.5% y/y and was up 5.3% from April (4.9% increased seasonally adjusted). The y/y enhance was the largest since late 2022. A smaller decline in shipments, elevated gas costs and better freight charges have been the catalysts for the rise.
Cass’ TL linehaul index, which tracks charges excluding gas and accessorial surcharges, elevated 6.9% y/y, the biggest enhance in almost 4 years. The dataset, which incorporates for-hire spot and contract charges, has been up y/y in 17 consecutive months.
“Volumes are starting to get well, however it’s primarily provide constraints supporting increased charges, in our view, each for gear capability and drivers,” the report mentioned.
Truckload capability started to exit final yr as authorities tightened enforcement of non-domiciled CDL and English proficiency guidelines, alongside crackdowns on questionable driver faculties and ELD suppliers. Latest occasions (elevated policing of cabotage guidelines and the Supreme Court docket’s dealer legal responsibility ruling) are additional purging noncompliant drivers from the trade.
Contract charges set earlier this yr are proving too low as capability continues to dwindle, in response to publicly traded carriers showing at an investor convention final week. The group sees the potential for double-digit charge hikes this yr and subsequent as routing guides crumble. That might be fairly the turnaround after a virtually four-year downturn.
