Palo Alto Networks (PANW) simply picked up one other vote of confidence from Wall Streetand it arrived at a busy second for the inventory.
Shares closed at $247.55 on Might 18close to a contemporary all-time excessive reached days earlier.
For a inventory that fell roughly 20% over the prior 12 months, that swing issues to anybody holding it.
The brand new name offers buyers one thing concrete to weigh earlier than the corporate opens its books.
Palo Alto Networks is the biggest pure-play cybersecurity agency by market worth.SOPA Photographs / Getty Photographs
Morgan Stanley raises its PANW value goal to $253 on firewall and AI safety demand
Morgan Stanley analysts Meta Marshall and Keith Weiss raised their value goal on Palo Alto Networks to $253 from $223 on Might 20, conserving an Chubby ranking, TipRanks report.
That means about 2% upside from the Might 18 shut, modest by itself however notable given how far the inventory has already run.
The financial institution pointed to sturdy demand throughout firewall refreshes, Prism SASE, Cortex XSIAM and AI safety because the drivers.
A firewall refresh is the cycle the place corporations change ageing community safety {hardware}, and that substitute wave is now feeding income.
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The agency primarily based the brand new goal on a greater 37x a number of of estimated 2027 free cash flow per share, up from 32xan indication it now thinks buyers pays extra for every greenback Palo Alto generates.
Why the timing of the Palo Alto Networks name factors straight at June 2 earnings
The improve just isn’t random. Palo Alto Networks studies fiscal third-quarter outcomes on June 2 after the market closes, and analysts are positioning forward of it.
Morgan Stanley expects the corporate to beat consensus on remaining efficiency obligations, a measure of contracted future income that hints at demand the revenue assertion has not but recorded.
The financial institution sees RPO rising nearer to 33% 12 months over 12 monthsabove the midpoint of administration’s personal steerage.
It additionally expects product income to land effectively above the roughly 25% development administration guided to.
Two latest prints set the desk: Fortinet grew product income 41% in its first quarter and lifted full-year steerage, per sec.govwhereas Cisco beat on networking.
Such sturdy numbers from rivals typically sign that the entire firewall market is wholesomewhich works in Palo Alto’s favor.
How the Idira id launch reshapes the Palo Alto Networks development story
The larger structural change sits in id safety, the work of controlling who and what can entry an organization’s techniques.
That job is getting tougher quick.
As AI brokers begin performing on their very own inside corporations, the variety of issues that want permission to log in and transfer information is exploding, and every one is a goal.
Palo Alto is transferring to personal that downside. As introduced in a Palo Alto press launch, the corporate launched Idira on Might 12 as its next-generation id platformconstructed to handle entry for people, machines, and AI brokers.
The launch makes the corporate’s $25 billion CyberArk acquisition a built-in a part of the platform as an alternative of a separate, standalone product.
Morgan Stanley sees three causes Idira issues:
It offers a transparent reply for why id belongs inside a safety platform, since agentic AI makes privileged entry much more frequent.
It opens a cross-sell path into Palo Alto’s base of greater than 70,000 prospects.
It lets current CyberArk prospects add zero-trust and machine id instruments over time.
The thesis is that id turns into a fourth pillar alongside community, cloudand safety operations, widening how a lot every buyer can spend.
What nonetheless has to go proper for the $253 PANW goal to carry
The next goal just isn’t a assureand the setup carries actual danger.
The stock trades at a premium valuation, with a ahead earnings a number of far above the market, so any development wobble can hit the shares laborious.
Palo Alto fell greater than 5% after its final two earnings studies regardless of beating estimates, a reminder {that a} sturdy quarter doesn’t all the time elevate the inventory.
Morgan Stanley additionally flagged potential stress on {hardware} gross margins from rising reminiscence prices, although it famous {hardware} makes up a smaller share of Palo Alto’s income than it does for rivals.
For the bull case to work, a couple of issues have to land.
Listed here are 4 indicators to look at on June 2:
RPO development at or above the 32% to 33% vary that administration guided to
Product income clearing the 25% development barhelped by early firewall ordering
Subsequent-Gen Safety ARR holding its roughly 56% development tempo
Early indicators that prospects are adopting Idira and CyberArk instruments
If administration reiterates its full-year guides, as Morgan Stanley expects, the durable-demand argument will get stronger.
How PANW stacks up in opposition to the broader market and its friends
Context helps right here. Palo Alto carries a market worth close to $176 billionmaking it the largest pure-play cybersecurity identify.
The inventory’s roughly 78% climb off its 52-week low of $139.57 has far outpaced the S&P 500 over the identical window, after touching a report excessive in mid-Might.
Nonetheless, Wall Road just isn’t unanimous on value, even whereas broadly bullish.
Latest targets vary extensively.
This is the place analysts stand forward of earnings:
Oppenheimer set a Road-high $275 after the CyberArk Impression occasion, Barchart reports
Truist moved to $275 from $200, and RBC Capital lifted its goal to $255
The consensus common sits close to $223with a low of $114 and a excessive of $285, per Stock Analysis data
That unfold displays a debate over valuation, not the corporate’s development.
The takeaway for Palo Alto Networks buyers
Morgan Stanley’s transfer to $253 matches a wider sample of analysts elevating targets forward of the June 2 report, pushed by firewall demand, AI safety traction, and a cleaner id story following CyberArk.
The case rests on Palo Alto beating its RPO and product income guides whereas exhibiting early Enter adoption.
The danger is a stretched valuation that has punished the inventory even on excellent news.
Buyers who already personal PANW have a transparent guidelines for earnings day, and people ready on the sidelines could need to see the quarter earlier than paying close to report costs.
Both means, the demand developments Morgan Stanley is betting on get examined in a matter of days.
