Morning Minute: Constancy Is Cautiously Bullish on Crypto

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GM!

At present’s high information:

• Crypto majors tumble as oil jumps to $100; BTC at $76,400
• White Home advisor teases main Strategic BTC Reserve announcement quickly
• Constancy says crypto is discovering a flooring, ETF demand might break 4-year cycle
• Bitcoin dev proclaims plans for arduous fork into eCash, would reassign Satoshi cash
• Gemini turns into first regulated alternate to launch agentic buying and selling

💰 Constancy Says The Crypto Market Is Discovering Its Ground

Constancy Digital Property revealed its Q2 2026 Signals Report on Mondayand the learn is cautiously bullish.

Regardless of Bitcoin’s 52% drawdown from its October 2025 all-time excessive, three key underlying metrics—unrealized profitability, momentum, and community utilization—are all enhancing.

• Bitcoin’s NUPL turned constructive for the primary time since January.
• BTC dominance is rising as capital concentrates in probably the most liquid asset, a sample that has traditionally preceded broader altcoin rotation
• Adverse futures funding charges look bearish however are seemingly tied to institutional hedging

ETH and SOL present divergence between worth and community exercise, with protocol-level utilization holding up regardless of lagging token costs. Constancy frames this as a constructive.

On the bear case: a conventional four-year cycle backside would level to November 2026, and prior cycles noticed 70%+ drawdowns from the all-time excessive. Bitcoin’s February low was roughly 52% off the height, in need of that threshold.

However Constancy does share that ETF inflows and company treasury demand create structural shopping for stress that didn’t exist in prior cycles—and thus the underside might actually be in…

⑃ A Bitcoin Developer Desires to Fork BTC and Spend Satoshi’s Cash to Fund It

LayerTwo Labs CEO Paul Sztorc announced plans to hard fork Bitcoin into a brand new chain referred to as eCash, launching in August at block top 964,000.

Each BTC holder will get eCash 1:1 on the fork. The chain is constructed round Drivechains, Sztorc’s decade-old scaling proposal that Bitcoin Core builders have repeatedly refused to merge.

There’s some controversy, as Sztorc deliberate to reassign as much as 500,000 of Satoshi’s ~1.1 million dormant BTC to early buyers as a funding mechanism, marking the primary time any Bitcoin fork has proposed touching Satoshi’s stack. Neighborhood response was roughly 80-85% destructive.

Sztorc has since posted a revised model eradicating the Satoshi coin part, although the ultimate construction stays unconfirmed and no main miners or exchanges have signaled assist.

🤖 Gemini Launches the First AI Agent Buying and selling Software on a Regulated US Trade

Gemini launched Agentic Trading on Mondaychanging into the primary regulated US crypto alternate to supply direct AI agent integration for stay buying and selling.

Constructed on Anthropic’s Mannequin Context Protocol, the product lets customers join Claude, ChatGPT, or any MCP-compatible AI to their Gemini account to autonomously execute trades, monitor markets, and handle danger based mostly on predefined methods.

Pre-built Buying and selling Expertise modules deal with market knowledge, unfold evaluation, and historic worth retrieval at launch, with extra deliberate. Coinbase’s x402 protocol and Stripe-backed Tempo’s Machine Funds Protocol are constructing related infrastructure on MCP as nicely.

💸 Technique Pulls Again, Bitmine Retains Pushing

Technique purchased 3,273 BTC for $255 million last weeka 91% drop from the prior week’s $2.54 billion purchase. The pullback was anticipated as STRC has been buying and selling slightly below its $100 par worth since its April 14 ex-dividend date, limiting Saylor’s new shopping for (it’s been his greatest driver).

In the meantime, Bitmine made its largest Ethereum purchase of 2026—233,600 ETH for ~$233.7 million, crossing the 5 million ETH milestone. Tom Lee commented that “ETH has outperformed the S&P 500 by 1,696 foundation factors because the Iran Warfare began.”

Notably, ETH was flat on the week regardless of Tom Lee’s greatest weekly purchase of the 12 months. An indication that there are some large sellers on the market…

🟠 White Home Alerts Main Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Announcement Coming Quickly

White Home crypto adviser Patrick Witt mentioned at Bitcoin 2026 in Las Vegas {that a} significant Strategic Bitcoin Reserve announcement is coming throughout the subsequent few weeks.

Witt mentioned the administration has been working by the authorized and operational framework wanted to implement Trump’s March 2025 government order, which directed the federal government to deal with its roughly 200,000 seized BTC as a everlasting reserve asset.

The anticipated announcement will tackle the buildup framework—how the reserve grows past present seizure-based holdings. Individually, Rep. Begich of Alaska mentioned he’s days from reintroducing the SBR laws, now referred to as the American Reserves Modernization Act, which might codify the reserve into regulation and direct the federal government to amass 1 million BTC over 5 years.

🌎 Macro Crypto and Markets

• Crypto majors deeper within the pink as oil surges; BTC -2% at $76.4k; ETH -2% at $2,280; SOL -2% at $84; HYPE -5% at $40
• BCAP (+28%), HASH (+17%), and PI (+8%) led high movers
• Oil +4% at $99.6; Gold -2% at $4,610
• Inventory futures are blended forward of a giant day of earnings and FOMC tomorrow
• Arthur Hayes called for $125k Bitcoin by finish of 12 months on the BTC Convention in Vegas, pushed by liquidity from struggle spending
• The Solana Basis shared a new post-quantum solution referred to as Falcon that Anza and Soar researchers independently discovered
• MARA Holdings CEO Fred Thiel introduced the MARA Basis at Bitcoin 2026 in Las Vegas on Monday, pledging to fund Bitcoin protocol researchopen-source growth, quantum resistance work, self-custody infrastructure, and coverage advocacy

Company Treasuries & ETFs

Meme Coin Tracker

• Meme leaders were blended; DOGE +1%, SHIB even, PEPE even, TRUMP -3%, BONK -1%, PENGU +4%, SPX -5%, FARTCOIN -1%
• SCAM (+270x), Both (+20%) and GDER (+100%) led notable movers
• SCAM pumped 40,000% to $16M after Elon referred to Sam Altman as “Rip-off” Altman forward of their trial beginning in California (now $10M)

💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker

• DeFi United released a plan for restoring KelpDAO and the lacking rsETH
• ZetaChain faced an attack focusing on inner workforce wallets, inflicting them to pause cross-chain transactions

🚚 What is going on in NFTs?

• NFT leaders had been barely inexperienced on the day; Punks even at 31 ETH, BAYC +3% at 9.7 ETH, Pudgy +1% at 5.32 ETH; Hypurr’s even at 365 HYPE
• Proxies (+40%), Winds of Yawanawa (+14%) and Otherdeeds (+14%) had been different notable winners
• Pudgy Penguins announced that Paxos Crypto Brokerage now helps $PENGU, making the token eligible for itemizing on retail buying and selling platforms and exchanges utilized by over 500 million individuals worldwide